Nigeria’s internet goals falter over declining subscriber base

Amid high deployment costs, multiple taxes, and other challenges hampering Nigeria’s internet penetration goals, the country now faces an added setback—a decline in both subscriber numbers and data usage, JUSTICE OKAMGBA writes

Nigeria’s ambitious goal of achieving 70 per cent internet penetration by 2025 is facing mounting challenges, as new data from the Nigerian Communications Commission revealed decline in both internet usage and subscriber numbers.

In March, it stood at 43.53 per cent but has since dipped to 41.56 per cent by September,  indicating an uphill task towards achieving the ambitious target next year.

Beyond the penetration rate, overall internet usage is also falling. According to the NCC’s latest released figures recently, internet traffic dropped by 0.82 per cent in September, down from 853,954 terabytes in August to 850,249 terabytes.
This aligns with a shrinking subscriber base: the number of active telecom subscribers has shrank to 154.6 million, down significantly from 219 million in March.

The telecom regulator attributed much of this decline to the recent National Identification Number verification policy, which mandates that subscribers link their SIM cards to valid NINs.

This requirement has led to a wave of deactivations, resulting in the major telecom operators—MTN, Airtel, Globacom, and 9mobile—collectively cutting 64.3 million lines.
Strategy documents

The idea of achieving 70 per cent broadband penetration and 90 per cent population coverage by 2025 was conceived through the National Broadband Plan 2020-2025.

The plan was officially launched by former Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Isa Pantami, in March 2020. It focused on enhancing infrastructure, reducing data costs, and improving internet speeds to support the country’s digital economy.

The NBP is a successor to the previous plan (2013-2018) and addresses shortcomings identified in that earlier initiative, aiming for a more comprehensive approach to broadband access across Nigeria.

The strategy also included increasing internet speeds to 25 Mbps in urban areas and 10 Mbps in rural areas, while also targeting a reduction in data costs to N390 per GB.

In 2023, Dr Bosun Tijani succeeded Pantami, who unveiled a strategic blueprint for 2023-2027 titled ‘Accelerating our Collective Prosperity through Technical Efficiency.’

The 31-page document outlined a framework based on five interconnected pillars: knowledge, policy, infrastructure, innovation & entrepreneurship, and trade.
Part of the plan is also to achieve 70 per cent broadband penetration by 2025. It also emphasises enhancing digital inclusion and economic productivity through innovation and collaboration with stakeholders across sectors.

Barriers

While the government has laid out a roadmap in the National Broadband Plan, current realities—ranging from infrastructure shortages to costly regulatory hurdles—raise doubts about the feasibility of this vision.

One of the most pressing issues is the severe shortfall in fiber optic networks, which serve as the backbone for high-speed internet connectivity. Currently, Nigeria has only about 35,000 kilometers of fibre optic cables installed across the country, far short of the estimated 95,000 kilometers needed to provide widespread coverage.

According to the GSMA, a global telecom association, achieving 96 per cent mobile broadband coverage by 2030—which would provide internet access to nearly the entire population—will require approximately $461m in investment.

In a recent report on universal service funds and policy reforms in Africa, the global telecom association highlighted a “funding gap” of $461m for Nigeria, noting that this shortfall exists in the absence of necessary policy reforms.

Experts noted that without this essential infrastructure, vast areas, particularly in rural and remote regions, remain disconnected, limiting the reach of broadband services and reinforcing the digital divide between urban and rural populations.
The struggling Nigerian telecom operators are the entities largely responsible for deepening the internet connection in Africa’s most populous nation.

Telcos are dealing with the challenge of high Right of Way fees; they must pay to lay cables along roads and public lands. In many Nigerian states, these fees are prohibitively high, adding to the already substantial costs of network deployment.

The President of the Association of Telecommunications Companies of Nigeria, Tony Emoekpere, stressed the need for partnerships between Federal and State Governments on driving the digital future.

“The future of Nigeria’s economy is digital, and telecom infrastructure is the backbone. We must prioritise this infrastructure, simplify the regulatory process, and ensure that the cost of doing business is reasonable and predictable,” Emoekpere said in a note to The PUNCH.

 As of June 2024, the Nigerian Communications Commission, which regulates the telecom industry, reported that it had secured RoW fee waivers in only six states.

 The Executive Vice Chairman of the NCC, Aminu Maida, stated that discussions with other state governments were ongoing to secure additional waivers.

 “The NCC has embarked on critical advocacy initiatives to address long-term challenges in the sector, including advocacy for designating telecom infrastructure as critical national infrastructure, as well as successfully persuading over six states to waive right-of-way fees, even as the NCC initiates discussions with more states,” the EVC said in a statement to The PUNCH.
Also, operators face multiple layers of taxation, which further discourages investment in network expansion. These financial burdens have created a bottleneck, slowing the pace of infrastructure rollout and deterring operators from extending services to underserved regions.
In 2023, the telcos paid N2.4tn tax to the Nigerian government, according to a digital economy report from the Groupe Special Mobile Association obtained by The PUNCH.

According to the report, the sector generated about N33tn, representing 13.5 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product.

The Chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria, Gbenga Adebayo, told The PUNCH that operators are forced to pay almost 50 different levies and charges.

The ALTON noted that despite the supposed removal of right-of-way costs intended to ease the burden on telecom operators, the industry was still facing significant challenges.

According to Adebayo, the levies and charges imposed on the telcos include multiple taxes, regulatory fees, and other charges, which are affecting the ability of operators to invest in their networks and provide quality services to customers.

The convener of the Hyperscalers Convergence Africa Conference in Lagos, Temitope Osunrinde, highlighted the inadequacy of Africa’s digital infrastructure despite its sizable population.
Osunrinde told stakeholders in September  that although Africa holds nearly a fifth of the global population, its fibre connectivity represents only a small fraction of the world’s total, underscoring the continent’s digital gap.

Fibre-optic infrastructure

A recent white paper by the Ministry of Communications, Innovation, and Digital Economy titled ‘Deepening Nigeria’s National Backbone and Middle Mile Infrastructure’ has highlighted an uneven distribution of fibre- optic networks across Nigeria.

The report reveals that roughly 25 per cent of the metro fibre network’s coverage is concentrated in just five states—Lagos, Edo, Abuja, Oyo, and Ogun—leaving much of the country underserved. This imbalance limits internet access in many states, underscoring the urgent need to expand fibre optic deployment nationwide.

To strengthen internet connectivity nationwide, the ministry has introduced several initiatives designed to drive rapid progress.

In collaboration with Nigerian Communications Satellite Limited and Galaxy Backbone, Project 774 LG Connectivity aims to deliver reliable, affordable internet access to these local offices.

Beyond connectivity, the initiative seeks to equip these government bodies with the tools necessary to improve service delivery, boost transparency, stimulate economic growth, and enhance citizen engagement.
Additionally, the government recently announced plans to establish a Special Purpose Vehicle to oversee the deployment of an additional 90,000 kilometers of fibre-optic cables.

This project, which will cost $2bn, will increase the country’s fibre network from 35,000 km to 125,000 km, positioning Nigeria as the third-longest terrestrial fibre optic backbone in Africa, behind Egypt and South Africa.

The African Development Bank had pledged $200m while the World Bank, the African Export and Import Bank, and the United States Export and Import Bank were also involved as donors, the minister told reporters in May after the Federal Executive Council meeting at the Aso Rock Villa, Abuja.

Satellite connectivity

According to experts, the broadband penetration target is at risk unless the country adopts satellite connectivity, due to the prohibitive costs of deploying fibre optic infrastructure in remote and underserved areas.

The Regional Director at Avanti Communications, Reuben Oshomah, stated in an email to The PUNCH that Nigeria must consider investing in digital infrastructure, particularly satellite technology.

He stated, “Satellite connectivity, meaning access to the internet via satellite technology, has played an increasingly vital role in this uptake, particularly when connecting underserved and remote areas, where traditional broadband infrastructure is lacking or too costly to deploy.”
Oshomah opined that satellites represented a scalable, adaptable infrastructure that could rapidly expand internet availability across Nigeria, supporting the government’s 2025 broadband target and enabling broader participation in the digital economy.

“We have already seen impressive progress across the country, and satellite companies are perfectly poised to accelerate this progression. For example, we have been working alongside the public and private sectors to help increase access to connectivity and education. Since 2020, we have connected over 700 communities in 21 Nigerian states, providing 2G and 3G connectivity to over 3.5 million Nigerians.”

He expressed optimism that Avanti will continue to collaborate with the government to ensure the elusive broadband target is achieved.

“We hope to continue to expand on this and work alongside partners to help reach the targets outlined in the government’s National Development Plan, which aims to unlock the country’s potential in all sectors of the economy.”

Nigeria is actively advancing its satellite projects, with plans to launch four new satellites, recently approved by President Bola Tinubu, to enhance the country’s space technology capabilities.

The Nigeria Communications Satellite Agency is seeking international partnerships to develop two new telecommunications satellites, NigComSat-2a and NigComSat-2b. These satellites are intended to replace the aging NIGCOMSAT-1R, which is expected to reach the end of its operational life by 2026.

The Managing Director of NIGCOMSAT, Nkechi Egerton-Idehen, said the agency has been positioned to provide the nation with reliable internet services that will stimulate innovation and advancement in the tech industry.
“Part of our mandate as a communications satellite operator is to ensure bridge the digital divide for the Nigerian people by providing broadband connectivity to the unserved and underserved populace.

“We are more than ever committed to provide universal, ubiquitous, and cost-effective access to communications infrastructure throughout the country, to strive for a Nigeria where the utilisation of ICT impacts all spheres from agriculture, education, health, enterprise, etc.,” she said earlier this year in Kaduna.